Audiobook Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner in the ListenBook app
Want to listen to the audiobook Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
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Book description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.
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How does it work?
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Download audiobooks from any site in any of the supported formats.
2
Add audiobooks to the app using any of the many download methods available.
3
Listen to audiobooks by controlling playback from your phone, headphones, Apple Watch or CarPlay.
Playing a wide variety of audio formats
Works on all devices with iOS 13 and newer
Huge amount of features for a small price
Frequent updates to add new features and improve existing ones
Advanced playback controls
Live sound processing
Changing the timbre of the reader's voice and noise reduction
Translated into more than 20 languages
App for those who love audiobooks
ListenBook has the features you need no matter what you are listening to
Listening to fiction
If you love listening to fiction audiobooks, ListenBook has features to make the process easier.
Edit book data: title, author, cover
Use equalizer to make the sound comfortable for you
Adjust the playback speed
Enjoy dark and light app themes
Supported formats: MP3, M4B, AWB, FLAC, OGG audio files and many more (must be DRM free)
Auto-Bookmarks make it easy to find your place
AirPlay support allows redirection of audio output.
VoiceOver support
Dark mode for night owls
Listening to audio lectures
Convenient bookmarking system helps you mark the most important places.
Unlimited bookmarks for each audiobook
Put your own cover on the wager
Share your audiobook with friends
Lock-screen control
Customise app with extensive options
Sleep timer with shake to reset, set custom notification sounds, and a few unique options
Auto rewind depending on paused time, customize rewind times to your liking
Removing background noise from recordings made in classrooms and meetings
Changing the timbre of the reader's voice for a better listening experience
Every day, thousands of people download ListenBook to listen to audiobooks.
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